This week, Danny gave “Pic’s Picks” for Conference Championship Weekend:
I went 2-2 against the spread in last weekend’s Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. My record in the playoffs is 4-5-1.
Hard to believe we’re already down to the final four of the playoffs. But here we are.
In fact, it’s actually a replay of Week 6, back in mid-October. In Week 6, the Bills played the Chiefs, and the Buccaneers played the Packers. And as you know, those are now the matchups for the AFC Championship and NFC Championship games this Sunday.
Maybe my picks will shock you. But maybe they won’t. Here’s who I have going to Super Bowl LV in Tampa Bay on Feb. 7:
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+3) over Green Bay Packers
-Ok, so, this pick probably won’t shock you. Of course I’m going with Tom Brady to go into Green Bay and knock off the No. 1 seed Packers on Sunday at 3:05 p.m. And sure, my heart was involved in making this pick, but I also used my brain. It’s not as if the No. 5 seed Buccaneers are surprising people with their success this season. They went 11-5 in the regular season, and one of those 11 wins came against, that’s right, the Packers, who finished the regular season with a 13-3 record. Back in Week 6, Tampa Bay beat Green Bay, 38-10. Brady threw two touchdowns, while Aaron Rodgers threw two interceptions, one which resulted in a pick-six. The Buccaneers defense gave Rodgers fits in that game, and it doesn’t look like that Bucs defense is any less dangerous three months later. Just take last weekend for example. Tampa Bay picked off Drew Brees three times in its 30-20 win over the Saints in New Orleans in the Divisional Round. So I think it’s fair to say that this will be Rodgers’ toughest game of the season. Speaking of Rodgers, let’s not downplay how good of a season he’s had. Rodgers led the NFL in touchdown passes with 48 (Brady finished second with 40). And the Packers’ offense is coming off a Divisional Round win in which they put up 32 points on the best defense in the NFL in the Los Angeles Rams, who allowed a league-best 18.5 points per game in the regular season. This is a dream matchup, Brady vs Rodgers, for sure. But only one can come out on top. Have fun getting me to bet against Brady in the playoffs. Bucs by a touchdown.
BUFFALO BILLS (+3) over Kansas City Chiefs
-This is the pick that will probably shock you. The Chiefs were the No. 1 seed in the AFC and had the best record in the NFL at 14-2. They’re coming off a Divisional Round win over the Cleveland Browns. They’re the defending Super Bowl champions. And make no mistake about it, they are the team to beat in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes got his bell rung in the win over the Browns and had to leave the game, but he’s expected to play and be fine this Sunday at 6:40. That means it’ll be up to Josh Allen to lead the No. 2 seed Bills into Kansas City and pull off the upset. When these two teams met in Buffalo in Week 6, the Chiefs won, 26-17. The difference was Travis Kelce’s two touchdowns, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s 161 rush yards. Let’s be honest, both of these defenses are pedestrian, but the Bills are coming off a Divisional Round win over the Ravens in which they held Baltimore to just three points. I understand why nobody would want to bet against Mahomes, Kelce, and Tyreek Hill. But there’s just something about this Bills team this season that has me feeling an upset. I expect a better-than-pedestrian performance by Buffalo’s defense, and game from Allen that will have everyone talking the next day. The Buffalo Bills going back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1993? It’s just too bad they’ll have to go up against Brady in that Super Bowl. And I can hear all the critics now, complaining that Brady once again gets the benefit of going up against an AFC East opponent (insert eye-roll emoji). Well, I think these Bills are for real, which is why I’m picking them to beat the Chiefs. Give me Buffalo by three.
Follow Danny on Twitter and Instagram @DannyPicard.
